Author: Karsten Silz
Nov 1, 2022 7 min read

Permalink: https://betterprojectsfaster.com/guide/java-full-stack-report-2022-11/fe-mobile/

Java Full-Stack Index Q4/2022: Front-End Mobile

The content of this page is identical throughout Q4/2022 - October, November, and December.

Summary for Q4/2022

  • Popularity trend: React Native has 50% more apps on iOS but only leads Flutter in job ad mentions 1.5:1 after a steep decline in the last five months. Among developers, Flutter leads React Native 2:1 and pulls away (except for Google searches, where both slightly lost). Xamarin and JavaFX have generally declined for years.
  • Don’t build two separate applications with Apple’s and Google’s first-party frameworks. Use a cross-platform framework instead.
  • If you already use Flutter or React Native in your project, then keep using them. Otherwise, evaluate a migration. In many (most?) cases, such migration doesn’t make business sense.
  • If you start a new project or migrate and have used React before, then start with React Native first and use Flutter otherwise.
  • If you start a new project or migrate and have not used React, then begin with Flutter first and use React Native otherwise.

Archive

2022 Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
2021 Dec Nov

Table Of Contents

Applications

These recommendations are for building native enterprise applications on iOS and Android - forms, data grids, reports. They are not for games or media applications.

Choices

Here are the choices in alphabetical order:

State of the Art

Declarative UIs are state of the art. Learn about it here.

Popularity

Why Popularity - and How?

Picking a popular technology makes our developer life easier: Easier to learn, easier to build, debug & deploy, easier to find jobs/hire, and easier to convince teammates & bosses. Now popularity can make a difference in two situations: When multiple technologies score similarly, we could go for the most popular one. And when a technology is very unpopular, we may not use it.

I measure popularity among employers and developers as the trend between competing technologies. I count mentions in job ads at Indeed for employer popularity. For developer popularity, I use Google searches, Udemy course buyers, and Stack Overflow questions.

Installed Base

The mobile analytics company appfigures analyzes all apps in the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store. That’s why they can publish a list of how many apps use a certain technology. JavaFX isn’t on the list because it has a <1% market share. So here are the results for the other three frameworks:

Installed Base for Flutter, React Native, and Xamarin
Installed Base for Flutter, React Native, and Xamarin

React Native wins, Flutters is second, and Xamarin is third. React Native and Flutter have the same share on Android. But on iOS, React Native is 50% ahead of Flutter. Xamarin is way behind with 4% on both iOS and Android.

Employers: Job Ads

The Indeed job search is active in 62 countries representing 89% of the worldwide GDP in 2020. It demonstrates the willingness of organizations to pay for a technology - the strongest indicator of popularity in my mind. Flutter is the baseline.

Job ad mentions at Indeed for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin
Job ad mentions at Indeed for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin

React Native wins, Flutters is second, Xamarin third, and JavaFX last. React Native has had quite a slump, dropping from a 2.5:1 lead over Flutter to a 1.5:1 in five months. The reason: In absolute numbers, Flutter now has 70% more job ad mentions than a year ago. That’s also why Xamarin lost 42% last year against Flutter. The initially high JavaFX numbers were a counting error of mine: They came from Japan and disappeared in October last year. Since then, JavaFX has settled to around 6% of Flutter’s mentions.

Please see here for details, caveats, and adjustments to the job ad mentions.

You can find the detailed search results with links here. They include breakdowns by continents:

Developers

Students at Udemy

Udemy is one of the biggest online learning sites. They publish the number of people who bought a course (beyond a certain threshold, possibly around 100k). This shows how many people evaluate a technology. This time, React Native is the baseline.

Students at Udemy for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin
Students at Udemy for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin

Flutter wins, React Native is second, Xamarin third, and JavaFX fourth. Flutter steadily increases its lead over React Native and now leads React Native 2:1. Xamarin and JavaFX has been stable against React Native over the previous eight months.

Here are the links that show the courses for all and the number of students for some:

Google Searches

Google Trends demonstrates the initial interest in a technology over time. “More searches = better” to me.

Google Trends for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin
Google Trends for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin

This link produces the chart above.

Flutter wins, React Native is second, Xamarin third, and JavaFX is fourth. Flutter and React Native hit their all-time highs earlier this year and have declined since then. Flutter still leads React Native nearly 2:1 and grows much faster. JavaFX and Xamarin have declined for 5.5 years.

Questions at Stack Overflow

Stack Overflow Trends shows which percentage of questions at Stack Overflow has a particular technology tag. It is a proxy for using a technology during evaluation and productive use. “More questions = better” to me.

Questions at Stack Overflow for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin
Questions at Stack Overflow for Flutter, JavaFX, React Native, and Xamarin

This link produces the chart above.

Flutter wins, React Native is second, Xamarin is third, and JavaFX fourth. Flutter grows much quicker than React Native and is at an all-time high. It now leads React Native 2.1:1. React Native is slightly off its all-time high at the end of 2021 and grows relatively slowly. JavaFX and Xamarin have declined for 4-5 years.

Analysis

I use the following criteria to recommend one of the two choices - Flutter and React Native:

  • Java: Flutter wins here because its language Dart is very similar to Java. React Native uses JavaScript instead.
  • Declarative: Declarative is state-of-the-art for front-end development. It’s a draw because both frameworks work this way.
  • Safe: Google has the image of killing projects and has multiple competing front-end frameworks. Although I personally think that Flutter will be around, good luck convincing your teammates or your boss! That’s why React Native is my winner here.
  • Popular: Flutter leads in three of the four popularity indicators but crucially loses in jobs - globally, there are twice as many for React Native. That’s why I declare React Native to be more popular.
  • Mobile functionality: It’s a draw as both frameworks can build the applications we need.
  • Libraries: I don’t know which of these two frameworks has the most and best libraries.
  • Speed: Flutter is faster because it has a native render engine. In React Native, rendering has to pass a JavaScript bridge.
  • Native Functionality: Flutter is the winner here: It has a lot of plug-ins that provide easy access to native functionality (like the camera or pictures), can show native screens, has channels for publish-and-subscribe communication with native code, and has a C API to top it all off.
  • 1 Codebase: It’s a draw because both have one.
  • Build, Deploy & Debug: I don’t know which of these two frameworks has the shortest build & deploy cycle and the best debug experience.

Based on these criteria and my ratings, Flutter is the winner, React Native is second. That’s why my recommendation is:

  • If you already use Flutter or React Native in your project, then keep using them.
  • If you use another framework, then investigate migration to Flutter first, then React Native. In many (most?) cases, such migration doesn’t make business sense.
  • If you start a new project and have used React for building web applications, then start with React Native first and Flutter otherwise.
  • If you start a new project and have not used React, then start with Flutter first and React Native otherwise.

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